Two New Majorities, One Old Deadline

The Associated Press has called the House and the Senate for Democrats. When the 120th Congress convenes on January 3, 2027, Democrats will hold at least 228 House seats and 54 Senate seats, counting the independents who caucus with them, by AP’s count Wednesday morning.¹

Nothing changes hands until then. For eight weeks, Republicans hold both gavels, and the calendar belongs to them. On that calendar, government funding runs out December 11.² The flood insurance program, surface transportation authority, and several smaller extensions riding the same bill expire that day too.³

An outgoing majority has two choices. It can finish the year’s spending bills on its own numbers. Or it can pass a short extension and hand the pen to the next majority. James Madison called the power over the purse “the most complete and effectual weapon with which any constitution can arm the immediate representatives of the people.”⁴ For eight more weeks, the outgoing majority holds that weapon. Every provision your company needs this year depends on how it uses it.

What history says

Winston Churchill said in 1944, “The longer you can look back, the farther you can look forward.”⁵ In nearly thirty years in Washington, I have seen the House change hands in four midterms. Each outgoing majority faced the same choice.

• 2006. Democrats won both chambers in a Republican president’s second-term midterm, as they did this week. President George W. Bush called it “a thumping.” The outgoing Republican Congress passed a stopgap to February 15, 2007. The new Democratic majority finished the year’s spending with a full-year resolution signed that day.⁶
• 2010. Republicans won the House. President Barack Obama called it “a shellacking.” Senate Democrats pulled a $1.1 trillion omnibus in mid-December and passed a stopgap to March 4, 2011. The spending fight moved to the spring.⁷
• 2018. Democrats won the House. Talks broke down over border wall funding. A partial shutdown began December 22 and ran thirty-five days into the new Congress.⁸
• 2022. Republicans won the House. The outgoing Democratic majority passed a $1.7 trillion omnibus two days before Christmas. It was the only outgoing House majority in these four handoffs to finish the year’s bills.⁹

John Adams told a Boston jury in 1770, “Facts are stubborn things.”¹⁰ Here they are. Three times out of four, the year’s spending rolled into the new Congress. This year, both majorities are leaving. The closest match is 2006, and in 2006 the outgoing Congress passed the decision to its successor.

The 120th Congress

Every committee gets a new chair, and committee staff turns over with the gavel. In the Senate, staff budgets follow the party split. In the House, the minority traditionally gets about one-third of committee staff.¹¹ The staff who know your issue on the majority side are about to become the minority, and many will leave.

Divided government returns. A Democratic Congress and a Republican President will each hold a veto over the other’s agenda. Must-pass bills become the main vehicles: appropriations, the defense authorization, and whatever expires next. In his 1988 State of the Union, Ronald Reagan held up 43 pounds of year-end budget bills and said, “Congress shouldn’t send another one of these.”¹² Congress has sent plenty since. Expect more oversight, and expect agencies to write rules with the next hearing in mind.

What to do this week

Transitions reward the teams that start early.

• Decide whether your provision needs this lame duck or can wait for the new majority, and tell your allies which.
• Ask when your bill will be enrolled, not only whether it will pass. A bill presented in the final days before adjournment can die without a signature.
• Meet the incoming chairs’ senior staff on your committees before the transition hiring rush.
• Write down the history behind your language while the outgoing staff can still check it.
• Prepare your agency contacts for new oversight requests.

Two new majorities take office January 3. The old deadline arrives first.